The Premier League is over for another season. Prizes were handed out, tickets to Europe handed out and passports to obscurity in EFL sealed rubber.
With him, the curtain comes down on the third season of VAR, and with it another 38 rounds of controversy and controversy over refereeing in England’s top flight.
This season we have recorded all VAR decisions in the Premier League and calculated how they may have affected the outcome of matches.
The final table shows some crucial changes.
Who won the title? Did Tottenham continue to reach the Champions League? Did Manchester United get the best VAR? Also, could a defaulter have stayed awake without crucial VAR calls?
Our calculations aren’t just about how many times a team gets a favorable VAR call, or about how many goals are affected. Even more important is when those VAR decisions were made, how they changed the course of the match, and most importantly, whether that affected the final outcome.
ESPN offers you a profile VARI effect table. We’ve taken all 120 VAR decisions in the Premier League and created an alternative table showing who the real winners and losers are.
How do we work on the VAR effect table
We only take the first inversion of VAR in each game, because the calculation considers that any subsequent VAR incident would not have occurred and the direction of the game was completely changed. (Think of it as a Marvel timeline, or the plot of any time travel movie.)
The VAR decision is then returned to the original field call – so if a target is not allowed due to offside, it will be given as a target.
If a penalty is waived, it will be considered to have been awarded and scored, unless the team in question has a penalty transfer record of 50% or less during the season. For example, Burnley and Watford missed half of their penalties, with Brighton on 57.1% and Man United on 60%. If it is 50% or less, the penalty may be judged to be missed.
If a team awards a penalty kick or an incorrect offside through the VAR, the goal will not be allowed.
We then considered a series of factors before settling on the expected outcome:
Team form: The results in the previous six matches give an indication of how the team is playing in general.
accident time: For example, if an accident occurs late in the game, the score line is unlikely to change again after that point.
xG the time of the accident: This allows us to take into account the team that was creating better chances and is on the rise.
Team strength: In addition to form, the general strength of the team plays a role. These factors in league position, team goals scored and defense throughout the season.
Impact of the accident: For example, reversing a red card decision may change the outcome of a match.
These results were then used to adjust the table and see the impact of VAR on teams’ positions this season, with arrows indicating whether their position in the league would have been better or worse without VAR.
The Big Winners without the VAR
Arsenal He suffered heartbreak in the Champions League at the hands of his arch-rival Tottenham Hotspur, on the last day. But it would have been a different story without VAR.
Arsenal earn four points all season, while Tottenham were among the biggest losers without the VAR, losing two points. This six-point swing puts Arsenal in fourth place, four points behind their neighbours. The race for the Champions League was not over until the last day.
In one VAR case, only West Ham had more VAR decisions in their favour than Arsenal, but when the negative decisions came, it really hurt Arsenal.
Two in particular changed the course of major matches. Arsenal were 1-0 up at home against Manchester City on New Years Day when the VAR decision awarded the visitors a penalty. This goal changed the course of the match and led to the victory of City. The VAR impact table counts this as Arsenal’s win. The second decision came in the loss at home to Brighton, where Gabriel Martinelli’s goal was canceled for offside when Arsenal were 1-0 down in the 45th minute; Again this counts as a win for Mikel Arteta’s men.
Spurs’s flips included a penalty that Everton canceled at Goodison Park, in a match that ended goalless, and a penalty awarded by Antonio Conte’s men at home to Burnley when the score was also 0-0. Added to this, Tottenham had Harry Kane’s offside goal allowed in their 3-2 win over Newcastle. However, they have made decisions against them, such as Kane’s goal being disallowed for offside in the draw with Southampton.
Arsenal may consider themselves hard to come by, but in reality they are Leicester City Who got the most points without VAR calls. The six points earned by the Foxes jump them to two places from eighth to sixth, and a position in the European League. It comes at the expense of Manchester Unitedwho, like Tottenham, earned two VAR points and were completely knocked out of Europe.
Leicester were 1-0 ahead away to Newcastle when the VAR overturned Bruno Guimarães’ goal that was not allowed to lead the Magpies to a 2-1 victory, while Brendan Rodgers’ men also scored Ademola Lookman’s goal for offside in the draw with Leeds United. .
Among the decisions taken Man United’s way, Everton’s late winning goal was ruled out for offside, and a red card was shown to Brighton’s Louis Dunk at Old Trafford when United were 1-0 up but the Seagulls were in charge. More importantly, there was the undisclosed late winner Leicester at Man United to Kelechi Iheanacho’s foul, effectively enabling the points oscillation between clubs.
Among the other teams that get points without the VAR, Brentford Earn two to finish 12, while BurnleyAnd Manchester And Norwich All are one point better off.
Like LiverpoolThe final points balance is unchanged at 92, which means Manchester City will win the Premier League with two points instead of one.
In the first half of the season Newcastle United He was one of the biggest winners without VAR, but the decisions have since adjusted themselves and the Magpies are now on the same points.
West Ham United team They have had 10 VAR decisions in their favour, more than any other club, but their total points remain unchanged, as is. Chelsea‘s.
The Big Losers Without the Video Assistant Referee
Leeds United They celebrated surviving the final day with a win over Brentford, but they may have VAR to thank for retaining their place in the Premier League – because the VAR impact table shows their relegation.
There are two factors at play here as Leeds lose two points without the VAR. First, there is the draw at home with Leicester which went down as a loss, then there is a penalty in injury time from Leeds against Crystal Palace when the result was goalless; Two of the major calls that went through the Yorkshire side.
In addition, Burnley also earned one point, and among a series of VAR decisions, Burnley’s penalty was overturned in the second half when Clarett trailed 1-0 against Arsenal. This three-point swing is enough to put the two teams in 35th place, with Leeds third on goal difference.
It was a close invitation to Southampton, very. The Saints are three points worse off without VAR, which has the most in common with relegation Watford And in the middle of the table Wolverhampton Wanderers. These points loss left Southampton hovering just one point above the relegation zone. It would have been a much closer call but for decisions like equalizing a late VAR penalty at Newcastle when it looked like they were headed for a 2-1 loss.
Although the Wolves ended more VAR decisions against them than in their favour (-2 net), the timing of these calls means they have already lost 2 points without VAR. It costs them a place in the top half of the table.
Meanwhile, Watford have fallen to rock bottom as they suffer a four-point swing with Norwich City. Norwich had 11 VAR decisions against them, more than any other team, but that was the nature of their poor form, as they were only one point better without VAR.
In addition to Leeds, Man United and Tottenham, there is also a two-point loss to Aston Villa And Crystal PalaceWhile Brighton and Hove Albion You lose one point.