If the sportsbooks and bet swaps are correct, Liz Truss will soon be on her way out of the PM’s office. [Image: Shutterstock.com]
Changes at the top
British Prime Minister Liz Truss’ odds of success continue to decline during the year following her dismissal of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarting on Friday.
Truss would do well to continue the lifespan of a mayfly at this rate.”
“Things continue to go from bad to worse for Liz Truss and the Conservatives, and we are now looking forward to one of the biggest swings in recent history between elections,” said Alex Abate of Ladbrokes, a British gambling company. “The latest possibilities are that Truss will do well to outlive a Mayfly at this rate.”
Truss took over as Boris Johnson after he resigned in the summer amid political turmoil and scandals. However, her inability to change public opinion for various reasons, including economic mismanagement and unpopular attitudes, makes her a candidate for a quick exit from the post, according to multiple sources.
The odds don’t favor gears
The last step Truss took to fire Kwarteng and replace him with Secretary of State Jeremy Hunt was to help advance her low-tax agenda. Hunt supported MP Rishi Sunak during the Conservative Party leadership election.
Truss still hoped to create a “low-tax, high-wage, high-growth economy” but agreed to the mistake of moving too quickly, causing instability in the economy. It also made a 180-degree pivot and ditched a plan to increase corporate tax from 19% to 25%.
“It is clear that parts of our mini-budget have gone further and faster than markets were expecting, so the way we do our job right now has to change,” Truss said during a press conference.
Ladbrokes had the possibility of changing gears (-163) before the end of the year
As a result of these omissions, as well as general negative public sentiment, Ladbrokes had odds of replacing Truss with (-163) before the year was over. Meanwhile, the political betting exchanges gave a 56% chance of Truss leaving before 2023.
As of Thursday, only 17% of people approved of the job that Truss does, while 59% disapproved, according to Politico. Labor also climbed to a vote intent of 50%, its highest level since 2002 and ahead of the Conservative Party by 24%.
Critics and challengers
Despite the negative signs, Truss intends to continue in her position.
“I am absolutely determined to deliver on what I promised,” Truss said after being asked if she would be leaving the position. “I want to be honest, this is tough, but we will weather this storm. We will deliver strong and sustainable growth that can transform our country’s prosperity for generations to come.”
Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer, one of Truss’s opponents, is calling for a revolution in government, not just a few alternatives.
Liz Truss’ reckless approach shattered the economy”
“Changing the chancellor does not undo the damage done in Downing Street,” Starmer wrote on Twitter. Les Truss’ reckless approach has wrecked the economy, causing mortgages to rise, and undermining Britain’s standing on the world stage. We need a change in government.”
The list of potential replacements for Gears includes both Sunak and Hunt, who have just replaced the outgoing Chancellor. The next general election will be held no later than January 2025, although Truss will have a hard time staying long if she can’t stop the bleeding.
