Five NBA Christmas betting trends to know before the games start on December 25. [Image: Shutterstock.com]
Another year of NBA Christmas
The NBA on Christmas Day is a staple in a sports fan’s household, but which teams do recent trends suggest are worth betting on this holiday season?
It’s no fun checking your inventory and ripping through your gifts only to lose them once the games start. That’s why we’ve put together some must-know betting trends for all five games on the NBA’s Christmas schedule.
Starting at the top, here’s what sports bettors need to know before the NBA ends on Christmas.
*All numbers valid as of 12/21/23. Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook*
NBA Christmas Betting Trends
Milwaukee Bucks (-3) vs New York Knicks (+3)
NEED TO KNOW: Over style is back in fashion
For many years, the basement was the way to go on Christmas Eve. However, he is now 12-3 on Christmas Day over the past three years and goes 5-0 in 2022.
It sets a modern and historical precedent on the side of the ending
The Bucks also have the second-most hits this season at 19-8 (70.4%) to their credit. The Knicks, despite being a defensive-minded team, are 15-12 (55.6%) in favor of the team, setting a modern and historical precedent on the team’s side.
The star players on both teams are also on fire entering the match. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard averaged a combined 60.4 points in December, while Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle averaged 52.8 points.
Golden State Warriors (+4.5) vs Denver Nuggets (-4.5)
NEED TO KNOW: The defending NBA champions are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 Christmas games
The Dubs won last year’s Christmas game, which marked a rare instance in which the defending champions won their game on December 25. However, history suggests that hiding the last Finals winner is actually a profitable tactic.
The Warriors are also 3-1 straight up and against the spread in their last four Christmas games, while Denver is 0-3 ATS on Christmas over that span.
Where it gets tricky is that the Nuggets are much better at home, and the Warriors are much worse on the road than they are at Chase Center. But don’t kill the messenger, because the directions say to tune in to the dimples.
Boston Celtics (+2) vs Los Angeles Lakers (-2)
Need to know: This is the most 50-50 game of the day
There are a lot of conflicting trends to be aware of in this particular matchup. For example, the Celtics are 5-3-1 ATS when facing the Lakers with LeBron James in the lineup, but they are just 12-12-2 ATS as favorites this season.
The Lakers are not great against the spread under any circumstances
Boston, widely considered the best team in the league, is also just 2-8-2 ATS as an away favorite. The Lakers aren’t a great team against the spread in any circumstance, but they are much better at home.
LeBron is the all-time leading scorer on Christmas Day and has averaged 38.5 points over his last two Christmas Day games, though he has lost and failed to cover in both. They are 10-7 straight up, but 1-3 ATS in their last four games on December 25th.
Philadelphia 76ers (+1) vs Miami Heat (-1)
NEED TO KNOW: Miami owns the Sixers
The Sixers are just 7-12-1 ATS since Jimmy Butler left the City of Brotherly Love for South Beach. Miami has covered four of its last five matchups, most recently beating Philly by 28 points as a two-point underdog in April.
Joel Embiid is in the best period of his career
We would be remiss if we didn’t point out that Joel Embiid is in the best shape of his career. He has recorded 13 straight games with at least 30 points and 10 rebounds and is averaging 41.4 points and 12.9 rebounds in December.
Will the MVP overcome a familiar opponent or go down like he usually does against Miami? Only a (very short) period of time will tell.
Dallas Mavericks (+4) vs Phoenix Suns (-4)
NEED TO KNOW: This has everything you need for a close game
The Mavericks (9-5) record is tied for best in the Western Conference. But despite their overall success, they are just 1-4th in the ATS bracket as road underdogs.
On the flip side, the Suns are 4-8 ATS as a home favorite and appear to play better on the road. Both teams participated in games last Christmas and recorded victories, with the Suns beating the Nuggets and the Mavericks beating the Lakers.
There’s also an unspoken, bitter rivalry between Devin Booker and Luka Doncic dating back to their Western Conference semifinal showdown two years ago. These are two of the best offenses in basketball, and the game should end, which usually favors the team that got the points.
