Although sports teams balance variances between teams, NFL teams’ overall records can predict betting success. [Image: Shutterstock.com]
capacity versus profitability
Does the team’s success in the NFL translate directly into more money and winnings in sports betting?
The Kansas City Chiefs went 14-3 during the regular season but were only 6-10-1 against the spread
For example, the Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs went 14-3 during the regular season, but were only 6-10-1 against the spread, the fourth-worst mark in the league.
With the number of Sundays steadily declining until football returns to television screens across America, the… VegasSlotsOnline news The team set out to find the answer. Remember these words when the bookmakers knock in the fall.
Does NFL record mean sports betting success?
Before we can share our findings, let’s understand how we distinguished capacity from profitability.
Ability was simply a team’s ability to win matches, which was reflected in their record. Profitability was determined by their performance against the spread.
Betting against spread means that users only take sides after the odds makers balance the disparate teams. Therefore, if the best team in the league faces the worst team in the league, the difference could theoretically be around 14 points, requiring the favored team to win by more than 14 just to cover the point difference and take advantage of the bet.
Spread betting usually makes consistent underdogs more relevant and less dominant (from a betting perspective).
Let’s take a look at the differences between ability and profitability in 2022, taking the teams with the ten best records (note: we’re assuming a $100 bet per game at odds of -110).
| a team | register | spread record | coverage rate | Loss of profits |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 14-3 | 6-10-1 | 37.5% | -28.41% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 14-3 | 8-9 | 47.1% | -10.16% |
| Buffalo bills | 13-3 | 8-7-1 | 53.3% | +1.82% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13-4 | 11-6 | 64.7% | +23.53% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 13-4 | 7-9-1 | 43.1% | -16.48% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 12-4 | 12-4 | 75% | +43.18% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-5 | 10-7 | 58.8% | +12.3% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10-7 | 11-5-1 | 68.8% | +31.25% |
| Baltimore Crows | 10-7 | 7-9-1 | 43.8% | -16.48% |
| New York Giants | 9-7-1 | 13-4 | 76.5% | +45.99% |
There are many takeaways from this scheme. The first is that the two best teams in the league—who were widely seen as the obvious top-flight contenders—both had negative returns in the NFL spread betting.
It was either consistently strong or exceeded expectations
Four of the ten teams with the best record in the league were also in the red. Most notable were the Bengals, Chargers, and Giants, who were all in the 6-10 range for the best record. The outside perspective on this is that these teams weren’t seen as obvious Super Bowl threats, but they were either consistently strong or exceeded expectations.
The opposite perspective
Next, we used the same technique to analyze the 10 worst teams in the NFL in 2022. Here’s what that information looks like.
| a team | register | spread record | coverage rate | Loss of profits |
| Chicago Bears | 3-14 | 5-11-1 | 31.3% | -40.34% |
| Houston Tx | 3-13-1 | 8-8-1 | 50% | -4.54% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4-13 | 8-9 | 47.1% | -10.16% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-12-1 | 6-11 | 35.5% | -32.62% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5-12 | 6-9-2 | 40% | -23.64% |
| Denver Broncos | 5-12 | 7-10 | 41.2% | -21.39% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6-11 | 8-9 | 47.1% | -10.16% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7-10 | 9-8 | 52.9% | +1.07% |
| New Orleans Saints | 7-10 | 7-10 | 41.2% | -21.39% |
| Cleveland Browns | 7-10 | 8-9 | 47.1% | -10.16% |
Only one team that was in the bottom 10 of the overall record, the Falcons, made any money for sports bettors. Interestingly, the Texans and Cardinals, two of the three worst teams in the league, were near the tie line. This follows a similar pattern as the top five teams were less profitable than the next five, except in this case, they were less damaging.
Outlook effect
It is also important to understand the impact of expectations. Most people around the league expected a productive season from the Broncos during Russell Wilson’s first year at his new leads, but they were disappointed. The Rams were also intended to be playoff contenders, but underperformed and were riddled with injuries.
This prediction worked in favor of the Falcons, who many thought would be terrible, but were actually competitive, especially against team opponents.
NFL and Sports Betting: The Wider Scope
We’ve already provided an extended model of how we analyze capacity and profitability. Now, let’s show a more condensed model that applies to the previous five years.
| 2017-21 teams | collected records | Combined spread history | coverage rate | Loss of profits |
| Top ten records | 586-224 | 463-326-21 | 58.69% | +12.03% |
| Ten worst records | 226-581-3 | 347-439-24 | 44.15% | -15.71% |
The main takeaway from this chart is that the top ten bands fared better against the spread than the ten worst. In many cases, it was teams in the 5-10 range that proved more profitable than the best teams in the league.
There was also more parity between the teams with the best and worst records in the five-year sample than in 2022. The difference in deviation from break-even was fairly similar, with the “best” group performing 3.68 percentage points (15.71%) better – 12.03%).
Support teams that win matches
In terms of the bottom line, the data shows that the best approach, in its simplest form, is to support teams that win matches, favorites or underdogs. This may seem obvious, but lower-ranked teams are often gifted with huge margins and can look like attractive prospects, even against the best teams.
The difference in deviation from the break-even point also shows that vanishing top teams into spots is more profitable than directly supporting the underdogs on a weekly basis.
The expectation effect was also a pattern that appeared more frequently throughout data collection. The message there is that it is important for bettors to have a solid sense of when to switch from a long-term view to a short-term view.
With this in mind, enjoy sports betting accordingly during the NFL season. Be aware of the predictions, keep track of the winners, and update your opinions.
