VSO News has found the best underdogs in a shot at 2024 Super Bowl glory based on the current format. [Image: Shutterstock.com]
Gameday is approaching
The NFL talks this time of year — with the season awaiting the start of the season and players braced for a grueling six months of games — about which teams, favorites and underdogs have a chance at winning the Super Bowl.
Since the 2000 season, the winning teams in the Super Bowl have had average preseason odds of about +1,580. That value would be the seventh-best player on the plate entering the 2023 campaign, which begs the question, which underdog should sports bettors look to to win the Super Bowl next February?
Here are our favorite dark horse picks.
black horses
The Detroit Lions (+2,200 to win the Super Bowl in FanDuel Sportsbook) saw one of the biggest jumps in preseason odds from last year to now coming off a productive 9-8 campaign, but still missed the playoffs. The Lions were fifth in scoring offense but allowed fourth in most points and most yards in the league.
Detroit is facing the burden of expectations for the first time in many years and will have to prove that its culture can withstand that pressure.
Trevor Lawrence has shown steady improvement and could enter the top five QB conversation
The Jacksonville Jaguars (+2,800) also rank high on the list of Super Bowl underdogs. They’ve won seven of their last nine games in 2022, including a 27-0 wild card comeback against the Los Angeles Chargers. Trevor Lawrence has shown steady improvement and could enter the top five QB conversation with another year of solid play.
What makes the Jags such an interesting prospect is that they have a legitimate chance of securing the top seed in the AFC. They play in the conference’s easier division, the AFC South, and play all of their tough out division games at home.
The Seattle Seahawks also have a lot of value as far as Super Bowl underdogs go. They’re +3,500 to lift the Lombardi Trophy, but they were attacked among the top 10 players last year and bolstered their defense by drafting cornerback Devon Witherspoon and running back standout linebacker Bobby Wagner.
And the Denver Broncos at +4500 to win the whole of Shebang are eye-catching. They should overtake the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in their own league, but they have a Super Bowl-winning head coach and a double QB (Sean Payton and Russell Wilson), along with one of the most talented defenses in the league.
Former Super Bowl underdogs
Only twice in the last 10 years has a team that was favored to win the Super Bowl have done so – both times, it was the New England Patriots who have managed to do it.
Six times in the past 10 seasons, however, the Super Bowl winner has been in the top three for odds. For reference, the three favorites entering the 2023 campaign are the Chiefs (+600), Philadelphia Eagles (+800), and Buffalo Bills (+900).
Bill Belichick’s defense had an outstanding performance in the 20-17 win
The biggest preseason underdog to win a World Series after 2000 was the 2001 New England Patriots. An unknown sixth-round pick and sophomore pro named Tom Brady helped guide the Pats beyond “the greatest show on turf,” the St. Louis Rams, as Bill Belichick’s defense delivered a masterclass in a 20-17 win.
Next up, the most likely Super Bowl champions were the 2017 Eagles. They rallied through the regular season thanks to Carson Wentz’s MVP-level play and still managed to dominate the playoffs even after Wentz was knocked out in Week 14 with a knee injury, and backup Nick Foles entered the fray.
Foles played his part in the playoffs and was named Super Bowl MVP as he defeated Brady and the same Pats who were underdogs at the start of the century.
The 2007 New York Giants (+3000), 2000 Baltimore Ravens (+2200), and 2011 Giants (+2200) are the second-biggest preseason underdogs who etched their name in NFL glory with a Super Bowl win.
Despite these great accomplishments, the last five NFL champions had preseason shortstop odds of +884 on average.
